Intrade, a market where you can bet on the outcome of elections, now estimates the following chances for each of the GOP candidates to win the nomination:
- Romney: 88.5%
- Santorum: 3.3%
- Ron Paul: 1.4%
- Gingrich: 0.5%
Now, I’d personally quibble a bit with giving Romney a near 90% chance. Majority chance, yes. Big, big majority chance, yes too. But I’d say more like 70%, at most. The fact that he still is having trouble cracking 40% in states with real competition, after having been the presumptive front runner for so long, tells me that there’s a heck of a bigger chance than 10% that he won’t get it.
What’s interesting, however, is that the numbers add up to 93.7%, meaning this market is estimating a 6.3% chance of someone else getting the nomination. Still small, for sure, but a heck of a lot higher than it was for either party at this point in 2008, if memory serves me right. Frankly, I’d put it higher, more like 15% or 20%. A brokered convention is a longshot, to be sure, but is there a one in five chance? Seems reasonable to me.