Intrade update

Intrade, a market where you can bet on the outcome of elections, now estimates the following chances for each of the GOP candidates to win the nomination:

  • Romney: 88.5%
  • Santorum: 3.3%
  • Ron Paul: 1.4%
  • Gingrich: 0.5%

Now, I’d personally quibble a bit with giving Romney a near 90% chance.  Majority chance, yes.  Big, big majority chance, yes too.  But I’d say more like 70%, at most.  The fact that he still is having trouble cracking 40% in states with real competition, after having been the presumptive front runner for so long, tells me that there’s a heck of a bigger chance than 10% that he won’t get it.

What’s interesting, however, is that the numbers add up to 93.7%, meaning this market is estimating a 6.3% chance of someone else getting the nomination.   Still small, for sure, but a heck of a lot higher than it was for either party at this point in 2008, if memory serves me right.  Frankly, I’d put it higher, more like 15% or 20%.  A brokered convention is a longshot, to be sure, but is there a one in five chance?  Seems reasonable to me.

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About John Hlinko

John Hlinko is a frequent political pundit on TV, and the founder of Left Action, a network of over 1 million activists. He is also the author of, "Share, Retweet, Repeat: Get Your Message Read and Spread," ranked by Amazon.com as the # 1 "hot new release" in web marketing in early 2012. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook
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